Protecting the electric system from cyber threats and ensuring its resilience are vital to our national security and economic well-being.  This is exactly why cybersecurity is one of four key themes in the White House’s Policy Framework for a 21st Century Grid. For obvious reasons, the private sector shares our interest in a safe and secure electric grid. The Administration has benefited from working closely with industry, including to develop the Roadmap to Achieve Energy Delivery Systems Cybersecurity, released by the Department of Energy last September.

To continue that close cooperation, last week Deputy Secretary of Energy Dan Poneman and I, along with senior officials from Department of Homeland Security, hosted industry leaders to discuss a new initiative to further protect the electric grid from cyber risks. This initiative — the Electric Sector Cybersecurity Risk Maturity Model Pilot — is a new White House initiative led by the Department of Energy, in collaboration with the Department of Homeland Security, to develop a model to help us identify how secure the electric grid is from cyber threats and test that model with participating utilities. Gaining knowledge about strengths and remaining gaps across the grid will better inform investment planning and research and development, and enhance our public-private partnership efforts.

I was encouraged to see an impressive number of electric sector leaders participating and sharing their views with us. Their high level of interest in this new effort reaffirmed for me that these stakeholders share our desire to better understand the strengths and remaining gaps across the sector, so that together we can continue to take concrete steps to protect the electric grid from cyber threats.

We look forward to continued cooperation with our partners in industry to ensure this initiative builds on industry efforts and becomes a meaningful tool to create a modern, secure electric grid that carries us through the 21st century.

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The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, commonly referred to as NYSERDA was established in 1975 and is known as a public benefit corporation offering information and analysis, technical expertise, programs, and funding to assist New York in increasing the use of renewable energy and energy efficiency in an effort to reduce the need for fossil fuels. NYSERDA is often tasked with environmental protection and creation of clean-energy industry jobs. Because of NYSERDA’s hard work, they won the 2011 ENERGY STAR Sustained Excellence Award for “continued leadership in protecting the environment through energy efficiency.”

1) NYSERDA Program to Increase use of Fuel Cells. In March of 2011, NYSERDA offered $21.6 million for fuel cell technology installation for businesses, hospitals and a number of other large power consumers interested in the installation. The technology will allow the users to generate their own power via clean energy technology and consume less energy from the electric grid. Not only does the program offer incentives toward the installation cost, but also payments over the first three operation years based on the quantity of power produced. “Fuel cells present a promising technology that NYSERDA strongly supports,” said Francis J. Murray Jr., President and CEO of NYSERDA. “If more large power consumers install fuel cells to offset some of their power needs, this will further our progress toward growing clean energy in New York State while taking some of the strain off the electric grid.”

2) NYSERDA Starts $26 Million Solar Thermal Incentive Program. In 2011, NYSERDA launched a new incentive program of thermal solar systems as a way to further encourage New Yorkers to switch to solar powered systems from electric hot water systems. The incentives are for businesses and homeowners who are looking to become more energy efficient and also reduce monthly electric bills. The program is to last for five years and help fuel New York’s clean energy economy, increase overall energy security, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

3) $4.6 Million Awarded by NYSERDA to 17 Transportation Related Projects. In an effort to assist New York State companies and universities in developing new, innovative transportation technologies that will reduce fossil fuel reliance, carbon dioxide emissions, and create new jobs, NYSERDA awarded $4.6 million to 17 New York based companies that are looking to develop and commercialize just that. For example, Folsom Technologies International was awarded $500,000 in funding for the development of a continuously-variable transmission enabling an engine to operate at efficient speed-torque combinations, and will also offer regenerative breaking feature to capture and reuse energy lost when braking. Another example is Lawbuilder Consulting that was provided $150,000 in funding to analyze the potential use of the mass transit infrastructure in New York to deliver retail goods to Manhattan’s downtown area, thereby reducing traffic and pollution.

4) NYSERDA Awards $6.5 Million in Incentives to Decrease Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Housing Complexes. To assist in encouraging the adoption of the plan to phase out #6 fuel oil, NYSERDA announced in 2011 $6.5 million in various incentives to assist multifamily buildings with five-plus units use cleaner fuels in running the building. #6 fuel oil produces more carbon dioxide emissions than #2 fuel oil and natural gas and the switch will make heating and hot water systems more affordable, and the incentives will also increase job growth. Overall, the program will eliminate 200,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions in 150-200 multifamily buildings within a ten year period.

5) In 2010, NYSERDA Awarded $11.3 Million to 25 Renewable Energy Projects. In 2010, NYSERDA provided $11.3 million in funding to assist in the development and commercialization of 25 renewable energy and energy storage projects. The funds are going to support demonstration projects, feasibility studies, and new product development. A number of projects include solar and photovoltaic projects, electric storage projects, wind power projects, waste-heat reuse projects, and projects involving fuel cell studies and kinetic hydropower studies. The 25 were selected from a total of 71 projects.

6) NYSERDA Receives $10 Million from Stimulus Funds toward Solar Photovoltaic. In 2010, NYSERDA made the announcement that $10 million from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was being awarded to seven solar energy companies that will install various solar photovoltaic systems on businesses and homes throughout the state. These residential and non-residential projects will increase clean renewable energy capacity by six megawatts and provide 600 businesses and homes with electricity.

7) Saratoga Technology + Energy Park. The Saratoga Technology + Energy Park, also known as STEP is located in Malta, New York and covers 280 acres and contains offices labs, and a light manufacturing facility. It is the home of Hudson Valley Community College’s TEC-SMART facility and the administrative offices of GLOBALFOUNDRIES, a semiconductor manufacturing facility. STEP is considered a knowledge-based community that offers significant resources for environmental and clean energy companies seeking strategic locations to build and grow in New York’s Tech Valley. It is owned and sponsored by NYSERDA.

8 ) NYSERDA Gives $1.5 Million to Syracuse Cleantech Center for the Establishment of a Clean Energy Business Incubator Program. In 2009, NYSERDA awarded $1.5 million to the Center for Cleantech Entrepreneurship at the Tech Garden in Syracuse, New York for the establishment of a clean energy business incubator program that will offer business support in an effort to accelerate the development of clean energy technology startup companies throughout central upstate New York. The program will provide the ability for clean technology companies to grow and increase the “green workforce” in the state. The goal is to further New York, especially the central upstate region as the national location for clean energy technology development.

9) Biomass Resources Program. NYSERDA’s Biomass Resources Program has a number of goals in the areas of bioremediation, agricultural and environmental biotechnology, fermentation, and the improvement of woody crops within the agricultural sector. This program “emphasizes the use of low-cost waste biomass, such as agricultural and forestry waste streams to products including fuels and chemicals.”

10) New York Energy Smart Program. When NYSERDA created the New York Energy Smart Program, the main goal was to increase the overall impact of sources of renewable energy throughout all parts of New York in an effort to reduce energy consumption and rising costs. The New York Energy Smart Program offers a variety of energy efficient programs for businesses, academic learning institutions, single family homes, multifamily buildings, and low and medium level income homeowners and renters. It provides a smart, effective way to purchase energy efficient products at a reduced cost. The program also offers clean energy training, energy education, outreach program and locations where energy efficient products are sold to the public.

Article by Shawn Lesser, Co-founder & Managing Partner of Atlanta-based Watershed Capital Group – an investment bank assisting sustainable fund and companies raise capital, perform acquisitions, and in other strategic financial decisions. He is also a Co-founder of the GCCA Global Cleantech Cluster Association ”The Global Voice of Cleantech”. He writes for various cleantech publications and is known as the David Letterman of Cleantech for his “Top 10″ series. He can be reached at shawn@watershedcapital.com

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One of the key concerns with the growth of electric vehicles is whether the United States electric grid will be able to manage the growth of vehicles plugged in. This is particularly a concern in areas that have experienced rolling brown and black outs during summer months when the air conditioning is cranking on high. Add to this, potential fresh concerns over nuclear power plant safety and one of the first questions I often get asked about plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) is whether our grid can take the additional draw from recharging all these vehicle batteries.

This is not a simple question to answer. Obviously, there is a component of consumer behavior. How will consumers recharge the vehicles? Will they all plug in at the same time? Electricity costs in the select areas with time of use pricing certainly steer most consumers to charge at off-peak times and many studies show that consumers who charge at home do just fine. However, many consumers will likely have some concerns about having enough mileage to get home (particularly initially) and may be inclined to charge during the day. So, smart grids and smart overnight charging are being developed to help ensure that when PEV charging is happening it isn’t bringing down the whole town.

But all of this raises the question of where do we need to be most concerned about this? In Pike Research’s recent “Electric Vehicles Geographic Forecasts” report, I attempted to address this by answering two key questions: Where will the vehicles be? And, how much power will they draw?

In figuring out where the vehicles will be, I examined data from manufacturers, consumer survey data, census demographic, and household data to forecast that New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, and Chicago will be the MSA’s with the largest numbers of PEVs by 2017.

But this is only half the story. Using this forecast data and overlaying it with the electric utility service areas, I generated a forecast for the utility service areas. By using industry averages for PHEVs and BEVs of 14 kWh and 22 kWh batteries with recharge times of 4.25 hours and 8 hours, respectively, I calculated the draw for specific electric utility service areas. This is purely a hypothetical maximum draw, which assumes everyone plugs in and charges their vehicles from zero to full all at the same time – all of which I admit is highly unlikely.

By 2017, Southern California Edison and Pacific Gas & Electric are the two electric utilities facing the greatest exposure with 498.6 MW and 466.5 MW potential electricity demands, respectively. However, when measured as a percentage of generating capacity (2009 figures), Pacific Gas & Electric is the most likely to find themselves in a crisis first, since 466.5 MW accounts for about 6 percent of their total generating capacity. The electric utility for the largest single PEV MSA, Consolidated Edison, has a potential draw of 241.9 MW. Since Consolidated Edison buys wholesale power instead of generating their own (in theory) they can just purchase additional power to make up for the extra demand.

Since this measure of total potential draw is a worst case scenario and highly unlikely, this tells me that PEV energy draws, even in California, are likely to be easily handled in the near-term. However, the total cumulative number of PEVs in the United States by 2017 is 1.5 million vehicles. That’s a pretty small number. So, will electric utilities be prepared for twice this number of vehicles by 2025? And don’t forget that electricity demands from non-vehicle sources are growing too. That seems a little less certain, but one thing is certain, planning for more generation capacity needs to start now, if it’s going to be online in time.

Article by Dave Hurst

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Before energy became a hot topic, no one cared about the electric meter. It was the box on the house we all ignored except the guy from the utility who dodged the barking dogs to take a reading from it once in awhile.

It is a sign of our times that this box now inspires enough emotion for people to take to the streets. Protesters gathered outside the California Public Utilities Commission last week claiming that new metering technology not only makes people sick, but also violates their Constitutional rights. Such opposition has been going on in California for months and has spread to other states.

On the other end of the spectrum, new or ‘smart’ meters are hailed as the addiction counselors that will save us from our dependence on foreign energy. Thus, utilities are rapidly replacing our ignored ‘dumb’ meters with the new smart version. North America and Europe will replace 45% their meters with smart ones by 2015, according to Pike Research.

So it is not a surprise to see that the Electric Power Research Institute weighed in recently with a study on the safety of smart meters. The study concluded that the radio-frequency (RF) exposure levels from the meters – at least the type examined by EPRI –are too low to be any danger to human health. In fact, the study found smart meter emis­sions, even at the maximum point, are about equal to emissions from WiFi routers and radio and television transmission. They are far lower than exposure fields from cell phones or microwave ovens, according to EPRI.

Known as advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), the new wireless meter uses digital technology to allow for two way communication between the household and the utility. Used optimally, the smart meter provides price signals from the utility so that consumers can choose when to do laundry, cook dinner or undertake other energy-consuming activities. The idea is to discourage use of the electric grid when it is under strain. This allows us to cut back on the number of peaking power plants we must build. These plants, which use fossil fuels, emit harmful pollutants.

So whichever side you take, whether you think of smart meters as hero or villain, there are health issues to consider. Smart meters increase RF exposure; lack of smart meters over the long term increases emissions from power generation.
No doubt we will hear much more about this issue. Indeed, EPRI sees its study as just the first step in responding to public concern.

But one thing is for certain, the meter is no longer the ignored box on the house. Like much in energy, its significance is rising in US policy, economic and health debate. Energy is front and center in the public psyche. That’s a good thing, since smart boxes will only get us so far in energy planning; smart consumers are the key.

Elisa Wood is a long-time energy writer whose work appears in many of the industry’s top magazines and newsletters. She is publisher of the Energy Efficiency Markets podcast and newsletter.

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U.S. officials say they will spend as much as $50.5 million to promote the growth of offshore wind energy in a push to achieve 54 gigawatts of electricity from offshore turbines by 2030.

Energy Secretary Steven Chu and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said the new initiative will seek to reduce the costs of offshore wind energy, address the technical challenges associated with installation and connection to the electric grid, and streamline the regulatory and permitting process.

While there are currently no offshore wind farms in U.S. waters, federal officials have identified areas off the East Coast that could support the emerging industry. “The United States is synchronizing new research and development initiatives with more efficient, forward-thinking planning so that we can help quickly stand up an American offshore wind industry,” Salazar said.

Meanwhile, a market survey by Bloomberg New Energy Finance indicated that the cost of onshore wind power has reached record lows — and in some regions is now competitive with coal-powered electricity.

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Since taking office, President Obama and his Administration have taken unprecedented steps to build a clean energy economy in this country. You may have already read about the events and announcements across the Administration in October on this front. I wanted to highlight a few items from the last couple of weeks:

• Helping Middle Class Families Save on Energy Bills. As part of our efforts to remove barriers standing in the way of a strong and sustainable home energy-efficiency industry, the Vice President announced several new agency initiatives that will help middle-class families save money on their energy bills. 
• Helping Farmers and Small Businesses Reduce Energy Costs. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack announced $30 million in loans and grants that will generate and save energy for our nation's farmers and rural small businesses for decades to come.  The loans and grants will go to more than 500 farmers, ranchers, and rural businesses for renewable energy and energy efficiency projects across the country. In each case, the projects announced will cut energy costs by 25 to 65 percent, amounting to an estimated 2.9 million kilowatt hours of energy saved. Among other things, this funding will help replace outdated equipment, such as inefficient grain dryers, support energy production from anaerobic digesters, insulate buildings, and allow recipients to incorporate renewable energy technologies into their operations.
• Large Scale Solar Power on Public Lands.  Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar approved a large-scale solar energy project on U.S. public lands in Nevada – a 500-megawatt facility that willprovide electricity to about 150,000 homes and create 1,300 construction jobs and up to 200 permanent operation jobs.  Since early October, the Secretary has approved a total of eight large-scale solar energy projects that combined will generate 3,500 megawatts to power more than 1 million homes and create 6,000 construction jobs and 700 permanent plant operations jobs.
• Cars that Will Run on Compressed Natural Gas. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu announced an offer of a nearly $50 million conditional loan commitment that will support the development of the six-passenger MV-1, a factory-built wheelchair accessible vehicle that will run on compressed natural gas.  The Vehicle Production Group estimates that the project is expected to create over 900 jobs and that it will produce approximately 22,650 vehicles per year when at full capacity.
• Greening the Federal Supply Chain. General Services Administrator Martha Johnson and White House Council on Environmental Quality Chair Nancy Sutley recently announced a collaboration between the federal government and vendors and suppliers to create a greener and more efficient supply chain.
• Modernizing Our Electric Grid and Powering Electric Cars. Cathy Zoi, the Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy at the Department of Energy, took part in a ribbon cutting at the first public curbside electric vehicle charging station here in the nation’s capital.  The Department of Energy also awarded $19 million, as part of a public-private investment of more than $30 million, for five projects to increase reliability, efficiency and security of our nation’s electric grid. 

Article by Chris Lu, Assistant to the President and Cabinet Secretary

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Microgrids may be a hot topic among those forecasting key future trends shaping the world’s energy infrastructure, but few significant state-of-the-art commercial microgrids are actually up and running in North America, the world’s leading market for microgrids. One leading domestic developer claims that not a single microgrid is providing energy services today in the U.S., but that firm uses a very narrow definition of what a microgrid is, excluding remote, off-grid microgrids within its qualifications, for example.

At present, regulations governing energy have not kept pace with emerging microgrid islanding technology, frustrating immediate progress. Most of the public and private investment dollars pouring into modernization of the globe’s electric grid have been soaked up by utility smart grid deployments, with very little funding filtering down to the microgrid level of design and deployment.

Academics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison – an institution often credited with the birthing of the microgrid concept (at least in engineering terms) – predict it could take 30 years for the microgrid to become ubiquitous. Yet current trends appear to make microgrids an inevitable augmentation of today’s centralized grid infrastructure. Aggregation platforms similar to microgrids will be absolutely necessary if our energy infrastructure follows in the footsteps of telecomm and the evolution of today’s Internet. No doubt the existing radial transmission grid will still provide the majority of power supplies to the industrialized world. But renewable distributed energy generation (RDEG) will also play a larger role in providing energy supply, reliability, security and emergency care services.

Given consumer pushback on smart meters — the very underpinning of the utility-dominated “smart grid” — in California, Texas, Colorado and elsewhere, the microgrid represents an alternative business model for boosting the quality of grid services. It is becoming self-evident that the hype behind the Obama Administration’s stimulus spending on smart grid upgrades raised expectations to unrealistic heights. Furthermore, utilities focused too much on the benefits meter data might bring to their own operations – and forgot to connect the dots with consumers, many of which only saw higher bills, and no coordinated programs and tools to respond to real-time price signals with more efficient consumption patterns and protocols. And then there were the concerns about data security.

The goals of both the smart grid and the microgrid are the same: to maximize generation assets through embedded intelligence while dramatically boosting efficiencies, thereby minimizing costs. However, they appear to offer two potentially different paths forward.

Both “supergrid” and “microgrid” will need to get smarter, though it is the distribution system that is currently the prime source of outages and unreliability. Today’s distribution grid network is clearly inadequate to support the type of innovation now occurring with distributed resources, including devices such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) serving as distributed storage batteries. The question is: Do we need bottom-up or top-down innovation?

Microgrids installed in developing nations or rural regions of the United States may be quite simple, even “dumb” if compared to the hyperbole often attached to descriptions of the smart grid. The Consortium for Electric Reliability Solutions’ (CERTS) demonstration projects show that microgrids do not necessarily need to rely on all of the sensors and fast, real-time communication protocols that are hallmarks of the smart grid.

Among the current microgrid control options are centralized management systems requiring high-bandwidth links between the inverters and central controller. Other prototype microgrids rely upon distributed on-board control that reduces the bandwidth needed — but at the cost of synchronization difficulties. More recent work has investigated a hybrid control scheme where proximate inverters operate in a master-slave arrangement. Still others are focused on remote or smaller microgrids are sticking with common frequency droop method, commercialized through the CERTS work, which greatly reduces the need for any high-bandwidth communications over large distances.

Control systems fall into two major camps. The purists – epitomized by the CERTS software – believe that microgrids should operate without any central command and control system, with generators and loads harmonizing autonomously based on local information. This is the view espoused by leading academics and localization advocates and the rationale is compelling. This system will work for the majority of smaller microgrids with a single owner and whose top priority is reliability and sustainability during emergencies. These are the “dumb” microgrids, if you will.

In the other camp are what you might call the pragmatists. They lean toward systems that can be described as “master/slave,” (whereas the CERTS approach has been described as being “like a commune.”) These operating systems are much more focused on optimization of services outside the microgrid. The benefits of reliability may come second to generating new revenue streams from excess generation (or even demand reductions.)

There are also those systems that can straddle these two views. There are few clear cut direct competitors in the space since no standards exist and microgrids are so modular, diverse and optimize such a broad array of energy-related services. It is these control systems – still literally being defined – where the fiercest competition may reign within the microgrid space. This is the guts of the microgrid, if you will, and the focus of current software innovation.

Peter Asmus is an analyst at Pike Research specializing in renewable energy. Article appearing courtesy Matter Network.

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Electric vehicles (EVs) are widely considered an inevitable part of the future of transportation. Every major auto manufacturer is working on their own electric model, with notables like the Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt and an electric Ford Focus scheduled for release within the next year or two.

The primary concerns surrounding EVs are, of course, their affordability for the mass market, reliability (batteries?) for long-distance travel — a veritable pastime in the United States — and grid power that’s clean enough to charge them without simply trading fossil fuel car emissions for fossil fuel power plant emissions.

Tennessee Leads the Way in Electric Vehicle Charging

In that vein, the state of Tennessee has taken its first step toward leading the way in renewable EV charging. The state has installed its first solar carport-slash-electric vehicle charging station at a site in Pulaski. Known familiarly as solar carports, these charging stations are no different than traditional carports except for a roof covered in solar panels. The power produced by these panels can charge electric cars or be channeled (for a price) to the regional electric grid. In Pulaski’s case, that’s the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA).

The Pulaski solar carport is relatively small, with the capacity to shelter and/or charge 12 vehicles, but it is a big start, with a second, larger facility planned for Pulaski, as well as another in Knoxville. All three carports will be installed by Outpost Solar, LLC. The first has been installed using only American-made components through a partnership between the state of Tennessee, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Pulaski Electric System and TVA, to which the solar power from all facilities will be sold.

The Pulaski solar carport is a bit ahead of its time, no doubt looking forward to an expected increase in charging demand in the coming years, so for now the facility is only being used for solar power generation aimed at TVA’s electric grid, with the option for EV charging services ready and waiting.

Wave of the Future?

There are a handful of solar carports already in existence elsewhere in the country, most notably at Google’s headquarters in California. The future of EVs may also spur residential solar carports by which homeowners can charge their own electric vehicles using some of the energy from a home solar power system. Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are also likely to come in handy for the future of Smart Grid operations, where plugged-in cars en masse can actually provide power to the grid, thus helping utilities balance loads without firing up back-up power plants.

Google has been testing the power of plug-in electric vehicles at its headquarters for two years now under its RechargeIT program. See the results of their latest experiment here.

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Ben Franklin’s saying, “Out of adversity comes opportunity” seems to characterize the energy sector in US Northeast. Electricity rates are among the nation’s highest. Population density leaves scant room for new power plants and transmission lines. And the region has little indigenous generation fuel.

So what’s the good news?

“This is why a very large and well spent push for energy efficiency and energy conservation has taken place in the Northeast,” says Ron Tabroff member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) and former chairman of its Power & Energy Society, Boston Chapter.

In fact, the Northeastern states make up a large portion of a thriving East Coast energy efficiency market, spurred by about $8.6 billion in incentives being distributed by utilities and state and local governments, according to “Energy Efficiency Incentives for Businesses 2010: Eastern States” by RealEnergyWriters.

IEEE is an organization known for its love of technological advancement – it publishes nearly a third of the world’s technical literature in electrical engineering, computer science and electronics. So it is little surprise that IEEE has a keen eye on the emerging smart grid and the new openings it creates for energy efficiency.

Real-time meters, appliances that ‘talk’ to the grid, and other smart applications offer both macro and micro remedies to the kind of strain and high prices faced by the Northeast electric grid, Tabroff says.

On the macro level, if these devices curb peak usage of electricity, they should result in less need to build and operate expensive peaking generators. That means less pressure to raise electricity rates, now up to 19.4 cents/kWh for households in Connecticut, the Northeast state with the highest rates and second in the nation to only Hawaii.

On the micro level, the consumer will have the ability for the first time to purchase electricity on sale. Digital displays placed in the home will reveal the ups and downs in electricity pricing over the course of the day. You can choose to do your laundry when it’s cheap, or cut back on air conditioning when electricity prices are high.

Smart meters are now making their way into Northeast households through pilot programs. A big question to be answered is whether or not people will take the time in their busy lives to act as personal electricity managers. Tabroff is confident consumers will as they “make the link between these devices and their electricity bill.”

And if they do not, no worries. Down the road, technology geeks are figuring out how to solve that one too. The next wave of smart electrical devices will act as our personal electricity shoppers. These include refrigerators programmed to defrost when electricity prices are cheap and dishwashers instructed not to turn on until the electric grid offers up a good deal.

The opportunity is great for engineers and energy service companies in the Northeast, where support is strong for new smart energy programs. The large investment the region is making into these technologies make it a testing ground. It’s a region for the world to keep an eye on.

Elisa Wood is a long-time energy writer whose work appears in many of the industry’s top magazines and newsletters. She is publisher of the Energy Efficiency Markets podcast and newsletter.

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While the title of this article may be a little premature, if you ask any auto company about their most exciting models coming out in the next few years, you would be hard pressed to find any auto maker without a plug-in hybrid or all-electric vehicle hitting the market in the next few years. And as fellow CleanTechies blogger Levent Bas suggested in August last year, “the future of electric vehicles may be here sooner than we think.”

With expected release dates in 2010, the plug-in Nissan Leaf, plug-in Toyota Prius and many other models will offer a green/clean-tech alternative from their gas-powered competition. Recent estimates place the number of models available by 2014 at over 70. Not all these vehicles will make their way to the US market and some wonder if the market will be ready but in other circles there are different concerns about the electrification of the transportation industry. Will the electric grid be ready for the additional load?

“If all our vehicles went from gas-powered to electric tomorrow, we would have some major issues” according to Andrew Tang, Senior Director, Smart Energy Web of PG&E in a presentation about net zero energy homes.

However, no one really expects this to be an overnight transition. Just like any other new technology, there will innovators, early adapters, mainstream purchasers, late adopters then your grandparents. The curve for electric vehicles should follow what we saw with CDs, DVDs, flat panel TVs, computers, and just about any other technology you can think of over the last few decades. People will consider electric vehicles as their gas-powered vehicles wear out. This means more than 10 or 15 years before one could expect that a majority of vehicles on American roads will be powered by electricity.

Will the masses really understand, trust and desire electric vehicles the next time they purchase a vehicle? If the success of the first few generations is any indication, the answer is a resounding “Yes!” The automobile market is changing and customer acceptance of electric vehicles is increasing but many think it will take at least another 5-10 years for people to believe electric vehicles are as good or better than their fossil fueled predecessors. This provides a large transitional window for utility companies across the country to upgrade their energy grids and for states to legislate rebates and/or incentives for what is called distributed generation of energy or small power generation in multiple locations i.e. solar, wind, geothermal, etc.

The need to wean ourselves off of fossil fuel is hardly debatable, in addition to the pollution created from gas powered vehicles, every day the US sends over $1 billion to other countries for the import of oil. The quicker the US moves to cleaner energy vehicles, the sooner our foreign oil dependence will disappear.  Electric vehicles cost less to operate on a per mile basis and maintenance issues are drastically reduced. With all the benefits expected for our air quality, bank account and national security, serious challenges remain in the transition to transportation electrification, namely customer acceptance of electric vehicles, price parity with gas powered vehicles, battery technology, charging infrastructure — especially for those who do not have easy access to outlets for charging, and the ability of each state to react to higher energy needs. For those entrepreneurs willing to take the risk to solve these challenges, the road ahead may be paved with gold.

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