As I have mentioned, the Solar Power International show a few weeks ago was a beehive of activity: 27,000 people busily learning, networking, excitedly establishing new business connections. As Americans, we need to be proud of this industry. Here are a few data points to keep in mind.

Growth. In the US, we put on about a gigawatt of solar in the last 12 months. This, of course, is small in comparison to other forms of energy, but it’s the fastest growing source of energy in the US, predicted to grow to 10 gigawatts by 2015.

What’s Driving It. While this growth is driven partially by government incentives like the Treasury grant, the incredible lack of clarity of support for solar at the federal level scares investors away like so many rabbits.  In large measure, the growth is fueled by ever-lowering costs, bringing solar ever closer to “grid-parity,” i.e., costs equal to coal, etc. And while consumers add more solar on their roofs, utilities are starting to bring on huge solar fields, realizing that the risk that would have been associated with coal (pollution) and nuclear (you name it) are simply not there with solar.

Jobs. The solar industry employs almost 100,000 Americans across all fifty states, and is projected to support over half a million American jobs by 2016. In many cases, these are folks who have been displaced from traditional industries, e.g., housing, in the continuing financial meltdown. Every day, new opportunities are created in manufacturing, engineering, installation, and sales.

Perhaps one day our elected leaders will get on board.

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During Solar Power International 2010 (SPI 10), each afternoon there were more than eight concurrent conference sessions. It was not possible to attend them all, but the “The Next Great Solar Cell Material: What Technology Will Emerge Dominant on the Market?” session was particularly interesting. I briefly attended two other sessions. It was more than a little ironic that the “Greening the Solar Industry” session had fewer than 30 people. At the same time the “Where’s the Solar Money” and the “Cell Material” sessions were standing room only with more than 300 people each. Below is a brief summary of the two best presentations in the “Cell Material” session. Please forgive potential misreporting of technical information. The goal of this blog is to share the highlights about future technology trends in solar.

To prepare for his talk, Simone Arizzi, Global Technology Manager with DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions, conducted an informal poll of fellow scientists and found a wide variety of answers to the question of future solar cell technology. He chose one colleague’s response as the most representative: “I don’t have the foggiest idea, but I do know that it will be made by DuPont.”

Arizzi presented a very interesting comparison of how three other industries (automotive, electronics, and construction) handled growth over time. To compare the auto and solar industries, Arizzi displayed a photo of different automobiles: a Model T, a Prius, and a Los Angeles traffic jam. “Right now PV is at the similar stage as the Model T. There are only one or two mass manufacturers in the industry. Like the Model T, all modules look alike to the untrained eye.” The photo of a Prius and the traffic jam—filled with 18-wheelers, motorcycles, and SUVs—was to illustrate how in the future PV will likely introduce niche products to address specific needs. “The future of PV is to start designing for niche needs like specific geographies and climates,” Arizzi said. “In the future we will see design adapt to end use applications.”

Arizzi also said it is difficult to predict specific developments in future PV modules, but we do know that they will:

• have novel functionalities
• be thin and light in order to enhance cost efficiencies
• start introducing substituted materials such as new polymers to substitute for glass and metal

Solar can learn two things from the electronics industry

• miniaturization achieved through higher density of transistors (However, in PV there is a physical barrier for how small systems can get.)
• systems integration to optimize cost, performance, reliability (Current examples for PV include: 1) batch sheet optimization, 2) enhancements at the subcomponent level such as backside integration of circuitry and front side integration with functionalities.)

Arizzi discussed the parallels between solar and the construction industry. A priority for construction is to build things that last a long time. “The two factors that will define PV of tomorrow will be reliability and durability. In the future we will require solar systems to have 50, even 100-year life spans.”

Ryne Raffaelle, Director of NREL’s National Center for Photovoltaics, began his strong presentation with a look back to 1995 when solar first broke the 30 percent efficiency barrier. Just two weeks ago Spire Semiconductor announced a solar cell with 42.3 percent efficiency. Raffaelle was confident that it is a matter of when, not if, solar will exceed 50 percent efficiency.

To get there, Raffaelle says we will need

• metamorphic growth
• mechanical stacking
• spectrum splitting concentrators
• quantum mechanic approaches such as lower band gap middle junction

Some of the existing cutting edge technology concepts include:

• hot carrier extraction
• nanophotonics

Like Arizzi, Raffaelle was able to outline the characteristics of future successful technologies:

• thinner cells
• improved efficiencies
• lower costs
• flexible material (this is very attractive on building integration)
• greater than 50 percent efficiency
• new materials (that are earth abundant, nontoxic, noncontaminating)
• quantum confinement approaches

With respect to substitutes for silicon, Raffaelle outlined some of the breakthroughs that first began with copper in the 1970s. Although copper is not sufficiently stable, copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) and cadmium telluride (CdTe) cells have become permanent parts of solar technology. “The exploration of other materials will continue. The kesterites look good and sulfur is virtually the same crystal structure as CIGS. If you think about future potential materials, it leads you back to silicon. One thing about silicon is that it is bulletproof. You get 80 percent performance at 30 years.”

The session moderator asked panelists to identify which material will dominate when 20 percent of power comes from solar? And which will be the first to reach grid parity? All panelists agreed this is a nearly impossible question to answer. However, there seemed to be consensus that in the future the dominant solar cell will be a hybrid of the positive attributes of crystalline and thin film.

Arizzi said, “I am convinced crystalline, thin film, and CPV will make it. One of the strengths of the industry is that there are multiple technology platforms and options. PV overall will succeed. It is only a matter of how big one will be over the other.”

Chris Constantine, Director of New Technologies at Oerlikon Solar, concluded the session on a strong note by saying: “The sun is a diffuse, nonuniform, resource. CPV works really well in certain areas but not in others. Thin film is more appropriate for others. We are all talking about timing. Each individual company needs to know, when in the next three years, there is a market for its technology that is at least as good the competition.”

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Solar Power International 2010 (SPI 10) has 27,000 registered attendees that are eager to learn what the future holds for the solar industry.

A year ago at SPI 09, the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and the Solar Electric Power Association (SEPA) energetically released the Solar Bill of Rights. Over the last year, 33,000 individuals signed onto the Bill of Rights.

This year, SEIA President Rhone Resch outlined the vision for the future of the solar industry. The most ambitious element of Resch’s vision is for the United States. to have annual solar installations of 10 GW a year by 2015. To provide context, the United States. currently installs 1 GW and Germany will install 7-8 GW this year. If the German government imposes a cap on the feed in tariff in a fashion that is similar to what occurred in Spain in 2008, German installations will likely drop to 5 GW per year and panel manufacturers will experience a significant oversupply of product.

Fortune Magazine journalist editor Mark Gunther asked members of the CEO panel if they thought the 10 GW annual installation was feasible. All panel members said “yes” but only if they were allowed to add specific caveats. Tony Clifford, CEO of Standard Solar, said “It is possible, but not at current costs. Costs have to come down and it has to be across all aspects of the value chain and not just the price of modules.”

When asked to identify the most important thing needed to drive this aggressive industry growth, Matthew Baker, Commissioner with the Colorado Public Utilities Commission, suggested that we need national Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) with set-asides. Another panel member added that at the very least we need a signal for carbon pricing. The panel discussed decoupling as an example of good policy: “The existence of decoupling in California represents forward thinking that resulted in California becoming the leader in energy efficiency.” Currently only seven or eight states have some version of decoupling.

Resch outlined several other elements of SEIA’s vision for the future of solar including that by 2015:

• Solar will become the biggest new installed energy each year.

• There will be 220,000 direct solar jobs and 500,000 ancillary solar jobs.

• This will result in $30 billion direct economic growth from solar.

• Solar will surpass natural gas, wind, and coal as an energy resource.

Resch also identified the key elements necessary for the solar industry to achieve this vision.

• Create a level playing field with respect to other energy industries, for example stop huge subsidies that support the oil industry.

• Create new financing mechanisms (in 2010 SEIA will sponsor a solar financing summit in New York).

• Maintain high ethics to prevent loss of consumer and regulatory trust.

Specifically Resch outlined the following call to action

• Join SEIA and get active.

• Support the SEIA Political Action Committee (PAC).

• Stop Proposition 23 in California.

• Encourage state Governors and city halls to install solar.

On behalf of The Solar Foundation, Resch announced the release of the first ever Solar Jobs Census. The report identifies that there are currently 96,000 jobs in solar industry. Job growth over the next 12 months is predicted to be 26 percent over the next year and exceeds predictions for the general economic growth. Half of all solar jobs are in the west with 36,000 in California alone. The quantity of solar jobs represents a significant proportion of the 800,000 clean tech jobs Obama predicts in the United States by 2012.

Ken Salazar, the Secretary of the Department of Interior (DOI), explained that the federal government prioritizes a path toward a safe, secure energy future. Besides last week’s decision to reinstate solar panels on the White House, the federal government has created a fast-track process for approval of large solar projects on federal land. Recently the DOI approved four Records of Decisions that represent 1,200 MW of solar installation commitments. Salazar signed the most recent Record of Decision live in front of the 700 participants in SPI 10’s Wednesday morning general plenary session. The action formalized the approval of First Solar’s Silver State 50 MW solar plant in Nevada.

Salazar’s decision adds to three other recorded projects:

• Bright Source’s 370 MW Ivanpah Power Tower project that will create 1,000 temporary jobs and 100 permanent jobs

• Tessera’s 709 MW Imperial Valley Sun Catcher dish technology

• Chevron Energy Solution’s Lucerne Valley 46 MW project

The fast-track approval process is the basis for DOI’s longer term solar approval strategy including landscape level planning, identifying solar energy zones, and an initiative to facilitate transmission on public lands. Secretary Salazar ended his speech with good news to say “our work is just beginning.” This announcement was met by a standing ovation from the crowd of solar industry professionals.

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LG Electronics announced the company’s entry into the United States PV market at the Solar Power International conference in Los Angeles on Tuesday. Geoff Slevin, recently appointed Vice President of the Solar Division at LG Electronics North America, said that “The U.S. is one of the fastest growing solar markets in the world and is expected to grow significantly over the next several years, in part due to federal and state incentives”. Before joining LG, Slevin was general manager for Carlisle Energy Services and vice president of sales and marketing at BP Solar.

LG plans to capitalize on its existing footprint outside of the US, but it will have to battle hard with well-established American players like First Solar, a thin film leader in the US, or Sunpower , a US leader in monocrystalline, as well as big Chinese competitors such as Suntech or Trina Solar, which sell both mono- and polycrystalline modules.

LG’s plans to enter the US market represent an important milestone for a company that has been investing in solar R&D since 1985. With a team of more than a hundred R&D professionals working on crystalline cells, thin film and module development, LG Electronics plans to invest $824.5 million by 2015 in its solar business. The company is now developing a high-efficiency crystalline cell and its thin film cells are among the most efficient in the market with an initial efficiency rate of 11.1%.

LG’s competitive advantage is not necessarily the warranty of its modules (the standard 12 years at 90% and 25 years at 80%), but rather their advantages lie in their unique features such as a light weight anodized frame design with improved toughness that drains liquid, the Reactive Ion Etching used on the wafers to increase light capture, or the Metal Wrap Through (MWT) technology, which reduces the surface area of silicon covered by metal ribbons, hence increasing efficiency. Further, as part of a larger conglomerate, LG Solar has access to cheaper capital and more resources than a traditional new entrant. This makes the company less likely to disappear in the next 25 years than a smaller company, giving them a head start in bankability and competitiveness.

The products displayed at the Solar Power International conference include LG’s monocrystalline and multicrystalline modules, which will be the first to hit the market, as well as more evolved models for release next year such as a higher power monocrystalline, tandem thin film, metal wrap through (MWT) high performance multicrystalline modules, and Reactive Ion Etching (RIE) modules. The diversity of technologies used in their products will require a heavy investment, considering that each requires different sources of machinery for mass production. Its Korean facilities will produce 120MW in 2010 and the company plans to increase production every year.

LG managed to enter the US market before South-Korean giant Samsung, focused on producing high-efficiency cells at low cost, or Hyundai, also investing heavily in solar energy.

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The developing world, where 44 percent of people lack access to electricity, could soon be one of the biggest markets for solar power, according to participants at the Solar Power International conference in California.

To date, just 1 percent of solar panel production has been installed in poor nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, a situation that Michael Eckhart, president of the American Council on Renewable Energy, called “a scandal for our industry.”

Eckhart and other experts said that in addition to finding financing to help low-income residents install solar panels, a major challenge is purchasing and replacing the batteries to store electricity at night and on cloudy days.

Another significant hurdle is replacing the energy-wasting incandescent bulbs and old, inefficient appliances and computers often used by village households.

One expert who has installed off-the-grid solar arrays in Africa and China said in regions where villagers use compact fluorescent bulbs and efficient appliances the cost of installing an adequate solar array and battery can be 75 percent cheaper.

Article appearing courtesy of Yale Environment 360

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